European Approaches to Risk Assessment of Terrorist Offenders

Europe has experienced a number of high-profile terrorist attacks committed by released terrorist prisoners. This has understandably drawn attention to the manner in which risk assessment and risk management is conducted for such offenders. This chapter provides an overview and assessment of three significant risk assessment frameworks which are currently used in Europe: VERA-2R, ERG and TRODA. These frameworks reflect different approaches countries can take, ranging from developing bespoke risk assessment frameworks to importing frameworks originally developed for use in other jurisdictions. Similarities and differences between the different frameworks are highlighted. With regard to the longer established frameworks the paper explores how the evidence base connected to their use has evolved in recent years. Some of the strengths and limitations of the frameworks are outlined. Overall, the chapter finds that the evidence base supporting the use of the frameworks has improved considerably though some significant concerns remain. Especially important is the current lack of available data on the predictive validity of the frameworks, and this is assessed along with other issues.