Competitive Online Regression under Continuous Ranked Probability Score

Raisa Dzhamtyrova, Yuri Kalnishkan

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We consider the framework of competitive prediction when one provides guarantees compared to other predictive models that are called experts. We propose the algorithm that combines point predictions of an infinite pool of linear experts and outputs probability forecasts in the form of cumulative distribution functions. We evaluate the quality of probabilistic prediction by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), which is a widely used proper scoring rule. We provide a strategy that allows us to 'track the best expert' and derive the theoretical bound on the discounted loss of the strategy. Experimental results on synthetic data and solar power data show that the theoretical bounds of our algorithm are not violated. Also the algorithm performs close to and sometimes outperforms the retrospectively best quantile regression.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationConformal and Probabilistic Prediction and Applications, 9-11 September 2019, Golden Sands, Bulgaria
PublisherProceedings of Machine Learning Research
Number of pages18
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2019
EventThe 8th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications: COPA 2019 - Golden Sands, Bulgaria
Duration: 9 Sept 201911 Sept 2019

Publication series

NameProceedings of Machine Learning Research
ISSN (Electronic)2640-3498


ConferenceThe 8th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications: COPA 2019
CityGolden Sands
Internet address

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