TY - JOUR
T1 - Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs
AU - Koutsodendris, Andreas
AU - Dakos, Vasilis
AU - Fletcher, William
AU - Knipping, Maria
AU - Kotthoff, Ulrich
AU - Milner, Alice
AU - Müller, Ulrich
AU - Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie
AU - Kern, Oliver
AU - Kolb, Laurin
AU - Vakhrameeva, Polina
AU - Wulf, Sabine
AU - Christanis, Kimon
AU - Schmiedl, Gerhard
AU - Pross, Joerg
PY - 2023/3/25
Y1 - 2023/3/25
N2 - There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO2 and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO2-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.
AB - There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO2 and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO2-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x
DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x
M3 - Article
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 14
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
M1 - 1664
ER -