Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19 : Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous. / Shevlin, Mark; Butter, Sarah; McBride, Orla; Murphy, Jamie; Gibson Miller, Jilly; Hartman, Todd K; Levita, Liat; Mason, Liam; Martinez, A. P.; McKay, Ryan; Stocks, Thomas VA; Bennett, Kate; Hyland, Philip; Bentall, Richard.

In: Psychological Medicine, 20.04.2021, p. 1-30.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

E-pub ahead of print

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Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19 : Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous. / Shevlin, Mark; Butter, Sarah; McBride, Orla; Murphy, Jamie; Gibson Miller, Jilly; Hartman, Todd K; Levita, Liat; Mason, Liam; Martinez, A. P.; McKay, Ryan; Stocks, Thomas VA; Bennett, Kate; Hyland, Philip; Bentall, Richard.

In: Psychological Medicine, 20.04.2021, p. 1-30.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Shevlin, M, Butter, S, McBride, O, Murphy, J, Gibson Miller, J, Hartman, TK, Levita, L, Mason, L, Martinez, AP, McKay, R, Stocks, TVA, Bennett, K, Hyland, P & Bentall, R 2021, 'Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19: Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous', Psychological Medicine, pp. 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291721001665

APA

Shevlin, M., Butter, S., McBride, O., Murphy, J., Gibson Miller, J., Hartman, T. K., Levita, L., Mason, L., Martinez, A. P., McKay, R., Stocks, T. VA., Bennett, K., Hyland, P., & Bentall, R. (2021). Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19: Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous. Psychological Medicine, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291721001665

Vancouver

Author

Shevlin, Mark ; Butter, Sarah ; McBride, Orla ; Murphy, Jamie ; Gibson Miller, Jilly ; Hartman, Todd K ; Levita, Liat ; Mason, Liam ; Martinez, A. P. ; McKay, Ryan ; Stocks, Thomas VA ; Bennett, Kate ; Hyland, Philip ; Bentall, Richard. / Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19 : Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous. In: Psychological Medicine. 2021 ; pp. 1-30.

BibTeX

@article{4c7119cc03d24b3a8384eea5ceca5498,
title = "Refuting the myth of a {\textquoteleft}tsunami{\textquoteright} of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19: Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous",
abstract = "Background: The current study argues that population prevalence estimates formental health disorders, or changes in mean scores over time, may notadequately reflect the heterogeneity in mental health response to the COVID-19pandemic within the population.Methods: The COVID-19 Psychological Research Consortium(C19PRC) Study is a longitudinal, nationally representative, online survey ofUK adults. The current study analysed data from its first three waves of datacollection: Wave 1 (March 2020, N=2025), Wave 2 (April 2020, N=1406)and Wave 3 (July 2020, N=1166). Anxiety-depression was measured usingthe Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and DepressionScale (a composite measure of the PHQ-9 andGAD-7) and COVID-19 related PTSD with the International Trauma Questionnaire.Changes in mental health outcomes were modelled across the three waves. Latentclass growth analysis was used to identify subgroups of individuals withdifferent trajectories of change in anxiety-depression and COVID-19 PTSD. Latentclass membership was regressed on baseline characteristics.Results: Overallprevalence of anxiety-depression remained stable, while COVID-19 PTSD reducedbetween Waves 2 and 3. Heterogeneity in mental health response was found, and hypothesisedclasses reflecting (i) stability, (ii) improvement, and (iii) deterioration inmental health were identified. Psychological factors were most likely todifferentiate the improving, deteriorating and high-stable classes from thelow-stable mental health trajectories. Conclusions: A low-stableprofile characterised by little-to-no psychological distress ({\textquoteleft}resilient{\textquoteright}class) was the most common trajectory for both anxiety-depression and COVID-19PTSD. Monitoring these trajectories is necessary moving forward, inparticular for the ~30% of individuals with increasing anxiety-depressionlevels.@font-face{font-family:{"}Cambria Math{"};panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:roman;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}@font-face{font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536859905 -1073732485 9 0 511 0;}@font-face{font-family:{"}Shaker 2 Lancet Regular{"};panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4;mso-font-alt:Calibri;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-format:other;mso-font-pitch:auto;mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal{mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-qformat:yes;mso-style-parent:{"}{"};margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:8.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:107%;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:11.0pt;font-family:{"}Calibri{"},sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:{"}Times New Roman{"};mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}span.A2{mso-style-name:A2;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-parent:{"}{"};font-family:{"}Shaker 2 Lancet Regular{"},sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:{"}Shaker 2 Lancet Regular{"};color:black;}.MsoChpDefault{mso-style-type:export-only;mso-default-props:yes;font-family:{"}Calibri{"},sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:{"}Times New Roman{"};mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}div.WordSection1{page:WordSection1;}",
author = "Mark Shevlin and Sarah Butter and Orla McBride and Jamie Murphy and {Gibson Miller}, Jilly and Hartman, {Todd K} and Liat Levita and Liam Mason and Martinez, {A. P.} and Ryan McKay and Stocks, {Thomas VA} and Kate Bennett and Philip Hyland and Richard Bentall",
year = "2021",
month = apr,
day = "20",
doi = "10.1017/S0033291721001665",
language = "English",
pages = "1--30",
journal = "Psychological Medicine",
issn = "0033-2917",
publisher = "CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Refuting the myth of a ‘tsunami’ of mental ill-health in populations affected by COVID-19

T2 - Evidence that response to the pandemic is heterogenous, not homogeneous

AU - Shevlin, Mark

AU - Butter, Sarah

AU - McBride, Orla

AU - Murphy, Jamie

AU - Gibson Miller, Jilly

AU - Hartman, Todd K

AU - Levita, Liat

AU - Mason, Liam

AU - Martinez, A. P.

AU - McKay, Ryan

AU - Stocks, Thomas VA

AU - Bennett, Kate

AU - Hyland, Philip

AU - Bentall, Richard

PY - 2021/4/20

Y1 - 2021/4/20

N2 - Background: The current study argues that population prevalence estimates formental health disorders, or changes in mean scores over time, may notadequately reflect the heterogeneity in mental health response to the COVID-19pandemic within the population.Methods: The COVID-19 Psychological Research Consortium(C19PRC) Study is a longitudinal, nationally representative, online survey ofUK adults. The current study analysed data from its first three waves of datacollection: Wave 1 (March 2020, N=2025), Wave 2 (April 2020, N=1406)and Wave 3 (July 2020, N=1166). Anxiety-depression was measured usingthe Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and DepressionScale (a composite measure of the PHQ-9 andGAD-7) and COVID-19 related PTSD with the International Trauma Questionnaire.Changes in mental health outcomes were modelled across the three waves. Latentclass growth analysis was used to identify subgroups of individuals withdifferent trajectories of change in anxiety-depression and COVID-19 PTSD. Latentclass membership was regressed on baseline characteristics.Results: Overallprevalence of anxiety-depression remained stable, while COVID-19 PTSD reducedbetween Waves 2 and 3. Heterogeneity in mental health response was found, and hypothesisedclasses reflecting (i) stability, (ii) improvement, and (iii) deterioration inmental health were identified. Psychological factors were most likely todifferentiate the improving, deteriorating and high-stable classes from thelow-stable mental health trajectories. Conclusions: A low-stableprofile characterised by little-to-no psychological distress (‘resilient’class) was the most common trajectory for both anxiety-depression and COVID-19PTSD. Monitoring these trajectories is necessary moving forward, inparticular for the ~30% of individuals with increasing anxiety-depressionlevels.@font-face{font-family:"Cambria Math";panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:roman;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}@font-face{font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536859905 -1073732485 9 0 511 0;}@font-face{font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular";panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4;mso-font-alt:Calibri;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-format:other;mso-font-pitch:auto;mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal{mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-qformat:yes;mso-style-parent:"";margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:8.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:107%;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}span.A2{mso-style-name:A2;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-parent:"";font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular";color:black;}.MsoChpDefault{mso-style-type:export-only;mso-default-props:yes;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}div.WordSection1{page:WordSection1;}

AB - Background: The current study argues that population prevalence estimates formental health disorders, or changes in mean scores over time, may notadequately reflect the heterogeneity in mental health response to the COVID-19pandemic within the population.Methods: The COVID-19 Psychological Research Consortium(C19PRC) Study is a longitudinal, nationally representative, online survey ofUK adults. The current study analysed data from its first three waves of datacollection: Wave 1 (March 2020, N=2025), Wave 2 (April 2020, N=1406)and Wave 3 (July 2020, N=1166). Anxiety-depression was measured usingthe Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and DepressionScale (a composite measure of the PHQ-9 andGAD-7) and COVID-19 related PTSD with the International Trauma Questionnaire.Changes in mental health outcomes were modelled across the three waves. Latentclass growth analysis was used to identify subgroups of individuals withdifferent trajectories of change in anxiety-depression and COVID-19 PTSD. Latentclass membership was regressed on baseline characteristics.Results: Overallprevalence of anxiety-depression remained stable, while COVID-19 PTSD reducedbetween Waves 2 and 3. Heterogeneity in mental health response was found, and hypothesisedclasses reflecting (i) stability, (ii) improvement, and (iii) deterioration inmental health were identified. Psychological factors were most likely todifferentiate the improving, deteriorating and high-stable classes from thelow-stable mental health trajectories. Conclusions: A low-stableprofile characterised by little-to-no psychological distress (‘resilient’class) was the most common trajectory for both anxiety-depression and COVID-19PTSD. Monitoring these trajectories is necessary moving forward, inparticular for the ~30% of individuals with increasing anxiety-depressionlevels.@font-face{font-family:"Cambria Math";panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:roman;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}@font-face{font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-pitch:variable;mso-font-signature:-536859905 -1073732485 9 0 511 0;}@font-face{font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular";panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4;mso-font-alt:Calibri;mso-font-charset:0;mso-generic-font-family:swiss;mso-font-format:other;mso-font-pitch:auto;mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal{mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-qformat:yes;mso-style-parent:"";margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:8.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:107%;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}span.A2{mso-style-name:A2;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-unhide:no;mso-style-parent:"";font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Shaker 2 Lancet Regular";color:black;}.MsoChpDefault{mso-style-type:export-only;mso-default-props:yes;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}div.WordSection1{page:WordSection1;}

U2 - 10.1017/S0033291721001665

DO - 10.1017/S0033291721001665

M3 - Article

SP - 1

EP - 30

JO - Psychological Medicine

JF - Psychological Medicine

SN - 0033-2917

ER -