Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

Christopher Prosser

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.008

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

Christopher Prosser

Department of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	274-278
Number of pages	5
Journal	Electoral Studies
Volume	41
Early online date	2 Dec 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.008
Publication status	Published - Mar 2016

Keywords

British elections
Local elections
Long range election forecasting

Access to Document

10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.008

Accepted ManuscriptAccepted author manuscript, 814 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415002152

Cite this

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title = "Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates",

keywords = "British elections, Local elections, Long range election forecasting",

author = "Christopher Prosser",

year = "2016",

month = mar,

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language = "English",

volume = "41",

pages = "274--278",

journal = "Electoral Studies",

issn = "0261-3794",

publisher = "Elsevier BV",

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KW - Local elections

KW - Long range election forecasting

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JO - Electoral Studies

JF - Electoral Studies

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