Professor Michael Spagat

  1. 2019
  2. Unpublished

    On the Decline of War

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 2019, (Unpublished).

    Research output: Working paper

  3. 2018
  4. Published

    Dealing with confusion over death “counts”

    Spagat, M., Jewell, B. & Jewell, N., Dec 2018, In : Significance. 15, 6, p. 10-10 1 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  5. Published

    Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns

    Spagat, M., Johnson, N. F. & Van Weezel, S., 17 Oct 2018, In : PLoS ONE. 13, 10, p. 1-13 13 p., e0204639.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  6. E-pub ahead of print

    Accounting for Civilian Casualties: From the Past to the Future

    Jewell, N., Spagat, M. & Jewell, B., 11 Jun 2018, In : Social Science History. 42, 3, p. 379-410 32 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  7. Published

    Attacks on medical workers in Syria: Implications for conflict research

    Spagat, M., 24 Apr 2018, In : PLOS medicine. 15, 4, p. 1-3 3 p., e1002560.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  8. E-pub ahead of print

    Terms and conditions still apply: A rejoinder to Hagopian et al

    Spagat, M. & van eezel, S., 27 Feb 2018, In : Research and Politics. 5, 1, p. 1-3 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  9. 2017
  10. Published

    Half a million excess deaths in the Iraq war: Terms and conditions may apply

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 11 Oct 2017, In : Research and Politics. 4, 4, p. 1-8 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  11. 2016
  12. Published

    Comment on ''Don't get duped: Fraud through duplication in public opinion surveys''

    Spagat, M., 2016, In : Statistical Journal of the IAOS. 32, 3, p. 293-294 2 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  13. 2014
  14. Unpublished

    Kosovo Memory Book: A Triumph of Remembering

    Spagat, M., 2014, (Unpublished).

    Research output: Working paper

  15. 2013
  16. Published

    Simple mathematical law benchmarks human confrontations

    Johnson, N. F., Medina, P., Zhao, G., Messinger, D. S., Horgan, J., Gill, P., Bohorquez, J. C., Mattson, W., Gangi, D., Qi, H., Manrique, P., Velasquez, N., Morgenstern, A., Restrepo, E., Johnson, N., Spagat, M. & Zarama, R., 10 Dec 2013, In : Scientific Reports. 3, 3463.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  17. Published

    Iraq Body Count: A Case Study in the Uses of Incident-Based Conflict Casualty Data

    Sloboda, J. A., Dardagan, H., Spagat, M. & Hicks, M. H. R., 2013, Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict. Oxford University Press, p. 53-76 24 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  18. Published

    MSE and Casualty Counts: Assumptions, Interpretation, and Challenges

    Jewell, N. P., Spagat, M. & Jewell, B. L., 2013, Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict. Seybolt, T., Aronson, J. & Fischhoff, B. (eds.). Oxford University Press, p. 185-211 27 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  19. 2012
  20. Published

    Estimating the Human Costs of War: The Sample Survey Approach

    Spagat, M., 20 Apr 2012, The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict. Oxford University Press

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  21. Published

    Suicide bombing: how to prevent death in civilians? - Authors' reply

    Hicks, M. H. R., Dardagan, H., Bagnall, P. M., Spagat, M. & Sloboda, J. A., 14 Jan 2012, In : The Lancet. 379, 9811, p. e9-e10 2 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

  22. 2011
  23. Published

    Casualties in civilians and coalition soldiers from suicide bombings in Iraq, 2003–10: a descriptive study

    Hicks, M. H-R., Dardagan, H., Bagnall, P. M., Spagat, M. & Sloboda, J. A., 3 Sep 2011, In : The Lancet. 378, 9794, p. 906–914 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  24. Published

    Mainstreaming an outlier: The quest to corroborate the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq

    Spagat, M., Jun 2011, In : Defence and Peace Economics. 22, 3, p. 299-316 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  25. Published

    Violent deaths of Iraqi civilians, 2003-2008: Analysis by perpetrator, weapon, time, and location

    Hicks, M. H. R., Dardagan, H., Serdán, G., Bagnall, P. M., Sloboda, J. A. & Spagat, M., Feb 2011, In : PLOS medicine. 8, 2, e1000415.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  26. Published

    Global Comparison of Civilian Targeting by Warring Actors

    Hicks, M., Lee, U. R., Sundberg, R. & Spagat, M., 2011, In : PLoS ONE. 6, 9

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  27. Published

    Ultrametric Wavelet Regression of Multivariate Time Series: Application to Colombian Conflict Analysis

    Murtagh, F., Spagat, M. & A. Restrepo, J., 2011, In : IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans. 41, 2, p. 254-263 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  28. 2010
  29. Published

    Truth and death in Iraq under sanctions

    Spagat, M., Sep 2010, In : Significance. 7, 3, p. 116-120 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  30. Published

    Ethical and data-integrity problems in the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq

    Spagat, M., Feb 2010, In : Defence and Peace Economics. 21, 1, p. 1-41 41 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  31. Published

    Conflict deaths in Iraq: A methodological critique of the orb survey estimate

    Spagat, M. & Dougherty, J., 2010, In : Survey Research Methods. 4, 1, p. 45-58 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  32. Published

    Discussion of “conflict deaths in iraq: A methodological critique of the orb survey estimate”

    Heald, J., Spagat, M. & Dougherty, J., 2010, In : Survey Research Methods. 4, 1, p. 17-19 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  33. 2009
  34. Published

    Common ecology quantifies human insurgency

    Bohorquez, J. C., Gourley, S., Dixon, A. R., Spagat, M. & Johnson, N. F., 17 Dec 2009, In : Nature. 462, 7275, p. 911-914 4 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  35. Published

    Estimating War Deaths: An Area of Contestation

    Spagat, M., Mack, A., Cooper, T. & Kreutz, J., Dec 2009, In : The Journal of Conflict Resolution. 53, 6, p. 934-950 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  36. Published

    Iraq study failed replication test

    Spagat, M., 1 May 2009, In : Science. 324, 5927, p. 590 1 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

  37. Published

    The Weapons that Kill Civilians: Deaths of Children and Noncombatants in Iraq, 2003-2008

    Hicks, M. H-R., Dardagan, H., Serdán, G. G., Bagnall, P. M., Sloboda, J. A. & Spagat, M., 16 Apr 2009, In : New England Journal of Medicine. 360, 16, p. 1585-1588 4 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  38. Published

    Sampling bias in systems with structural heterogeneity and limited internal diffusion

    Onnela, J. P., Johnson, N. F., Gourley, S., Reinert, G. & Spagat, M., 2009, In : Europhysics Letters. 85, 2, 28001.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  39. Published

    Tracking Civilian Casualties in Combat Zones using Civilian Battle Damage Assessment Ratios

    Cameron, E., Spagat, M. & Hicks, M. H. R., 2009, In : British Army Review.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  40. 2008
  41. Published

    The dirty war index: A public health and human rights tool for examining and monitoring armed conflict outcomes

    Hicks, M. H. R. & Spagat, M., Dec 2008, In : PLOS medicine. 5, 12, p. 1658-1664 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

  42. Published

    Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality

    Johnson, N. F., Spagat, M., Gourley, S., Onnela, J. P. & Reinert, G., Sep 2008, In : Journal of Peace Research. 45, 5, p. 653-663 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  43. 2006
  44. Published

    Human capital and the future of transition economies

    Spagat, M., Mar 2006, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 34, 1, p. 44-56 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  45. Published

    The severity of the colombian conflict: Cross-country datasets versus new micro-data

    Restrepo, J. A., Spagat, M. & Vargas, J. F., Jan 2006, In : Journal of Peace Research. 43, 1, p. 99-115 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  46. Published

    Colombia's hydra: the many faces of gun violence

    Aguirre, K., Muggah, R., A. Restrepo, J. & Spagat, M., 2006, Small Arms Survey.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  47. 2005
  48. Published

    Colombia's tipping point?

    Restrepo, J. A. & Spagat, M., Jun 2005, In : Survival. 47, 2, p. 131-152 22 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  49. Published

    Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships

    Overland, J., Simons, K. & Spagat, M., 2005, In : Public Choice.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  50. 2004
  51. Published
  52. Published

    The Dynamics of the Colombian Civil Conflict: A New Data Set

    A. Restrepo, J., Spagat, M. & Vargas, J. F., 2004, The Rationale of Revolutions. 2 ed. Homo Oeconomicus, Vol. 21. p. 396-428 33 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  53. 2001
  54. Published

    The Politics of Co-optation

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Dec 2001, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 29, 4, p. 591-607

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  55. 1999
  56. Published

    Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

    Fan, C. S., Overland, J. & Spagat, M., 1999, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 27, 4, p. 618-643 26 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  57. 1998
  58. Published

    Growth under uncertainty with experimentation

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., 24 Sep 1998, In : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 23, 2, p. 209-231 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  59. 1997
  60. Published

    Structural uncertainty and subsidy removal for economies in transition

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Dec 1997, In : European Economic Review. 41, 9, p. 1709-1733 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  61. 1995
  62. Published

    Optimal learning with costly adjustment

    Feldman, M. & Spagat, M., Oct 1995, In : Economic Theory. 6, 3, p. 439-451 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  63. Published

    Human capital, instability and foreign investment in transition economies

    Spagat, M., Jun 1995, In : Economics of Planning. 28, 2-3, p. 185-203 19 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  64. Published

    A General Model of the Soviet Consumer

    Acharya, A. & Spagat, M., 1995, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 20, 3, p. 302-315 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  65. Published

    Leaving some stones unturned: A reassessment of iterative planning theory

    Spagat, M., 1995, In : Journal of Public Economics. 58, 1, p. 85-105 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  66. 1993
  67. Published

    Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Aug 1993, In : Journal of Monetary Economics. 32, 1, p. 169-183 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  68. Published

    Can rational individuals keep money under their mattresses forever?

    Spagat, M., 1 Jun 1993, In : Economic Theory. 3, 2, p. 373-377 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  69. 1992
  70. Published

    Shortages amid plenty under Soviet-type planning: A theory of unreliable supplies

    Banerjee, A. V. & Spagat, M., 1992, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 16, 2, p. 302-308 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  71. Published

    Validated equilibrium and sequential spatial competition games

    Spagat, M., 1992, In : Mathematical Social Sciences. 24, 1, p. 49-57 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  72. 1991
  73. Published

    Contract enforcement in sellers' markets

    Spagat, M., Dec 1991, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 15, 4, p. 681-697 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  74. Published

    Productivity paralysis and the complexity problem: Why do centrally planned economies become prematurely gray?

    Banerjee, A. V. & Spagat, M., Dec 1991, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 15, 4, p. 646-660 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle