Professor Michael Spagat

  1. 2020
  2. Forthcoming

    Excess Deaths and Hurricane Maria

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 10 Feb 2020, (Accepted/In press) In : Population and Environment.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  3. E-pub ahead of print

    A computational science approach to understanding human conflict

    Johnson Restrepo, D., Spagat, M., Van Weezel, S., Zheng, M. & Johnson, N. F., 3 Feb 2020, In : Journal of Computational Science. p. 1-7 7 p., 101088.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  4. Published

    The Decline of War since 1950: New Evidence

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 2020, Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences. Gleditsch, N. P. (ed.). Springer

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  5. 2019
  6. Unpublished

    On the Decline of War

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 2019, (Unpublished) Springer.

    Research output: Working paper

  7. Published

    Patterns in Terrorism and Insurgency: From real events and online extremism to a generative mathematical model.

    Johnson, N. F., Van Weezel, S., Spagat, M. & Johnson Restrepo, D., 2019.

    Research output: Working paper

  8. 2018
  9. Published

    Dealing with confusion over death “counts”

    Spagat, M., Jewell, B. & Jewell, N., Dec 2018, In : Significance. 15, 6, p. 10-10 1 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  10. Published

    Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns

    Spagat, M., Johnson, N. F. & Van Weezel, S., 17 Oct 2018, In : PLoS ONE. 13, 10, p. 1-13 13 p., e0204639.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  11. E-pub ahead of print

    Accounting for Civilian Casualties: From the Past to the Future

    Jewell, N., Spagat, M. & Jewell, B., 11 Jun 2018, In : Social Science History. 42, 3, p. 379-410 32 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  12. Published

    Attacks on medical workers in Syria: Implications for conflict research

    Spagat, M., 24 Apr 2018, In : PLOS medicine. 15, 4, p. 1-3 3 p., e1002560.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  13. E-pub ahead of print

    Terms and conditions still apply: A rejoinder to Hagopian et al

    Spagat, M. & van eezel, S., 27 Feb 2018, In : Research and Politics. 5, 1, p. 1-3 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  14. Published

    Estimating Indirect War Deaths Directly

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 2018.

    Research output: Working paper

  15. 2017
  16. Published

    Half a million excess deaths in the Iraq war: Terms and conditions may apply

    Spagat, M. & Van Weezel, S., 11 Oct 2017, In : Research and Politics. 4, 4, p. 1-8 8 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  17. 2016
  18. Published

    Comment on ''Don't get duped: Fraud through duplication in public opinion surveys''

    Spagat, M., 2016, In : Statistical Journal of the IAOS. 32, 3, p. 293-294 2 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  19. 2014
  20. Unpublished

    Kosovo Memory Book: A Triumph of Remembering

    Spagat, M., 2014, (Unpublished).

    Research output: Working paper

  21. 2013
  22. Published

    Simple mathematical law benchmarks human confrontations

    Johnson, N. F., Medina, P., Zhao, G., Messinger, D. S., Horgan, J., Gill, P., Bohorquez, J. C., Mattson, W., Gangi, D., Qi, H., Manrique, P., Velasquez, N., Morgenstern, A., Restrepo, E., Johnson, N., Spagat, M. & Zarama, R., 10 Dec 2013, In : Scientific Reports. 3, 3463.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  23. Published

    Iraq Body Count: A Case Study in the Uses of Incident-Based Conflict Casualty Data

    Sloboda, J. A., Dardagan, H., Spagat, M. & Hicks, M. H. R., 2013, Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict. Oxford University Press, p. 53-76 24 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  24. Published

    MSE and Casualty Counts: Assumptions, Interpretation, and Challenges

    Jewell, N. P., Spagat, M. & Jewell, B. L., 2013, Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict. Seybolt, T., Aronson, J. & Fischhoff, B. (eds.). Oxford University Press, p. 185-211 27 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  25. 2012
  26. Published

    Estimating the Human Costs of War: The Sample Survey Approach

    Spagat, M., 20 Apr 2012, The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict. Oxford University Press

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  27. Published

    Suicide bombing: how to prevent death in civilians? - Authors' reply

    Hicks, M. H. R., Dardagan, H., Bagnall, P. M., Spagat, M. & Sloboda, J. A., 14 Jan 2012, In : The Lancet. 379, 9811, p. e9-e10 2 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

  28. 2011
  29. Published

    Casualties in civilians and coalition soldiers from suicide bombings in Iraq, 2003–10: a descriptive study

    Hicks, M. H-R., Dardagan, H., Bagnall, P. M., Spagat, M. & Sloboda, J. A., 3 Sep 2011, In : The Lancet. 378, 9794, p. 906–914 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  30. Published

    Mainstreaming an outlier: The quest to corroborate the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq

    Spagat, M., Jun 2011, In : Defence and Peace Economics. 22, 3, p. 299-316 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  31. Published

    Violent deaths of Iraqi civilians, 2003-2008: Analysis by perpetrator, weapon, time, and location

    Hicks, M. H. R., Dardagan, H., Serdán, G., Bagnall, P. M., Sloboda, J. A. & Spagat, M., Feb 2011, In : PLOS medicine. 8, 2, e1000415.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  32. Published

    Global Comparison of Civilian Targeting by Warring Actors

    Hicks, M., Lee, U. R., Sundberg, R. & Spagat, M., 2011, In : PLoS ONE. 6, 9

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  33. Published

    Ultrametric Wavelet Regression of Multivariate Time Series: Application to Colombian Conflict Analysis

    Murtagh, F., Spagat, M. & A. Restrepo, J., 2011, In : IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans. 41, 2, p. 254-263 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  34. 2010
  35. Published

    Truth and death in Iraq under sanctions

    Spagat, M., Sep 2010, In : Significance. 7, 3, p. 116-120 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  36. Published

    Ethical and data-integrity problems in the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq

    Spagat, M., Feb 2010, In : Defence and Peace Economics. 21, 1, p. 1-41 41 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  37. Published

    Conflict deaths in Iraq: A methodological critique of the orb survey estimate

    Spagat, M. & Dougherty, J., 2010, In : Survey Research Methods. 4, 1, p. 45-58 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  38. Published

    Discussion of “conflict deaths in iraq: A methodological critique of the orb survey estimate”

    Heald, J., Spagat, M. & Dougherty, J., 2010, In : Survey Research Methods. 4, 1, p. 17-19 3 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

  39. 2009
  40. Published

    Common ecology quantifies human insurgency

    Bohorquez, J. C., Gourley, S., Dixon, A. R., Spagat, M. & Johnson, N. F., 17 Dec 2009, In : Nature. 462, 7275, p. 911-914 4 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  41. Published

    Estimating War Deaths: An Area of Contestation

    Spagat, M., Mack, A., Cooper, T. & Kreutz, J., Dec 2009, In : The Journal of Conflict Resolution. 53, 6, p. 934-950 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  42. Published

    Iraq study failed replication test

    Spagat, M., 1 May 2009, In : Science. 324, 5927, p. 590 1 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

  43. Published

    The Weapons that Kill Civilians: Deaths of Children and Noncombatants in Iraq, 2003-2008

    Hicks, M. H-R., Dardagan, H., Serdán, G. G., Bagnall, P. M., Sloboda, J. A. & Spagat, M., 16 Apr 2009, In : New England Journal of Medicine. 360, 16, p. 1585-1588 4 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  44. Published

    Sampling bias in systems with structural heterogeneity and limited internal diffusion

    Onnela, J. P., Johnson, N. F., Gourley, S., Reinert, G. & Spagat, M., 2009, In : Europhysics Letters. 85, 2, 28001.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  45. Published

    Tracking Civilian Casualties in Combat Zones using Civilian Battle Damage Assessment Ratios

    Cameron, E., Spagat, M. & Hicks, M. H. R., 2009, In : British Army Review.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  46. 2008
  47. Published

    The dirty war index: A public health and human rights tool for examining and monitoring armed conflict outcomes

    Hicks, M. H. R. & Spagat, M., Dec 2008, In : PLOS medicine. 5, 12, p. 1658-1664 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

  48. Published

    Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality

    Johnson, N. F., Spagat, M., Gourley, S., Onnela, J. P. & Reinert, G., Sep 2008, In : Journal of Peace Research. 45, 5, p. 653-663 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  49. 2006
  50. Published

    Human capital and the future of transition economies

    Spagat, M., Mar 2006, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 34, 1, p. 44-56 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  51. Published

    The severity of the colombian conflict: Cross-country datasets versus new micro-data

    Restrepo, J. A., Spagat, M. & Vargas, J. F., Jan 2006, In : Journal of Peace Research. 43, 1, p. 99-115 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  52. Published

    Colombia's hydra: the many faces of gun violence

    Aguirre, K., Muggah, R., A. Restrepo, J. & Spagat, M., 2006, Small Arms Survey.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  53. 2005
  54. Published

    Colombia's tipping point?

    Restrepo, J. A. & Spagat, M., Jun 2005, In : Survival. 47, 2, p. 131-152 22 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  55. Published

    Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships

    Overland, J., Simons, K. & Spagat, M., 2005, In : Public Choice.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  56. 2004
  57. Published
  58. Published

    The Dynamics of the Colombian Civil Conflict: A New Data Set

    A. Restrepo, J., Spagat, M. & Vargas, J. F., 2004, The Rationale of Revolutions. 2 ed. Homo Oeconomicus, Vol. 21. p. 396-428 33 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  59. 2001
  60. Published

    The Politics of Co-optation

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Dec 2001, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 29, 4, p. 591-607

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  61. 1999
  62. Published

    Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

    Fan, C. S., Overland, J. & Spagat, M., 1999, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 27, 4, p. 618-643 26 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  63. 1998
  64. Published

    Growth under uncertainty with experimentation

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., 24 Sep 1998, In : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 23, 2, p. 209-231 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  65. 1997
  66. Published

    Structural uncertainty and subsidy removal for economies in transition

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Dec 1997, In : European Economic Review. 41, 9, p. 1709-1733 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  67. 1995
  68. Published

    Optimal learning with costly adjustment

    Feldman, M. & Spagat, M., Oct 1995, In : Economic Theory. 6, 3, p. 439-451 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  69. Published

    Human capital, instability and foreign investment in transition economies

    Spagat, M., Jun 1995, In : Economics of Planning. 28, 2-3, p. 185-203 19 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  70. Published

    A General Model of the Soviet Consumer

    Acharya, A. & Spagat, M., 1995, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 20, 3, p. 302-315 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  71. Published

    Leaving some stones unturned: A reassessment of iterative planning theory

    Spagat, M., 1995, In : Journal of Public Economics. 58, 1, p. 85-105 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  72. 1993
  73. Published

    Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy

    Bertocchi, G. & Spagat, M., Aug 1993, In : Journal of Monetary Economics. 32, 1, p. 169-183 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  74. Published

    Can rational individuals keep money under their mattresses forever?

    Spagat, M., 1 Jun 1993, In : Economic Theory. 3, 2, p. 373-377 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  75. 1992
  76. Published

    Shortages amid plenty under Soviet-type planning: A theory of unreliable supplies

    Banerjee, A. V. & Spagat, M., 1992, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 16, 2, p. 302-308 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  77. Published

    Validated equilibrium and sequential spatial competition games

    Spagat, M., 1992, In : Mathematical Social Sciences. 24, 1, p. 49-57 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  78. 1991
  79. Published

    Contract enforcement in sellers' markets

    Spagat, M., Dec 1991, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 15, 4, p. 681-697 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  80. Published

    Productivity paralysis and the complexity problem: Why do centrally planned economies become prematurely gray?

    Banerjee, A. V. & Spagat, M., Dec 1991, In : Journal of Comparative Economics. 15, 4, p. 646-660 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle