What drives the frequency of terrorist attacks? Thematic Analysis of a Rapid Evidence Assessment

Understanding how and why the frequency of terrorist attacks can change is clearly a critical issue and an increasing amount of research has focused on this subject. This article presents the results of a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) of research published from 2012 to 2022 on this area. A total of 50 articles were identified which met the review’s criteria thresholds. Thematic analysis identified eight core themes across the research which affected the frequency of terrorist attacks: Regime Type and Domestic Politics; Economic factors; Military Intervention and Foreign Fighters; Migration; Climate Change and Natural Disasters; Terrorist Organisational Qualities; Terrorist Target Selection Practices; and, Media Coverage. The article also considers the research methods used across the studies and, in particular, reflects on the heavy reliance placed on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD).
Potential implications in terms of policy as well as recommended avenues for future research are discussed.