The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Christopher Prosser; Jonathan Mellon

doi:10.1017/gov.2018.7

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Christopher Prosser
, Jonathan Mellon

Department of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	757-790
Number of pages	34
Journal	Government and Opposition
Volume	53
Issue number	4
Early online date	23 May 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.7
Publication status	Published - Oct 2018

Keywords

late swing
non-probability samples
polling
representative samples
shy voters
survey error
survey weighting
turnout filtering

Access to Document

10.1017/gov.2018.7

British Election Study 2014-25 Combined Wave 1-30 Internet Panel
Fieldhouse, E. (Creator), Green, J. (Creator), Evans, G. (Creator), Mellon, J. (Creator), Prosser, C. (Creator), Bailey, J. (Creator), de Geus, R. (Creator), Schmitt, H. (Creator), van der Eijk, C. (Creator), Griffiths, J. D. (Creator) & Perrett, S. (Creator), British Election Study, 2025
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/british-election-study-combined-wave-1-30-internet-panel/
Dataset

Cite this

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title = "The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses",

keywords = "late swing, non-probability samples, polling, representative samples, shy voters, survey error, survey weighting, turnout filtering",

author = "Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon",

year = "2018",

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T1 - The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

AU - Prosser, Christopher

AU - Mellon, Jonathan

PY - 2018/10

Y1 - 2018/10

KW - late swing

KW - non-probability samples

KW - polling

KW - representative samples

KW - shy voters

KW - survey error

KW - survey weighting

KW - turnout filtering

U2 - 10.1017/gov.2018.7

DO - 10.1017/gov.2018.7

M3 - Article

SN - 0017-257X

VL - 53

SP - 757

EP - 790

JO - Government and Opposition

JF - Government and Opposition

IS - 4

ER -

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Keywords

Access to Document

Datasets

British Election Study 2014-25 Combined Wave 1-30 Internet Panel

Cite this