The Effects of Unemployment on Fertility: Evidence from England

This paper reinvestigates the causal effects of local unemployment on fertility. It argues that contradicting results in the existing empirical research may have arisen due to a neglect of sub-demographic differences and failure to recognize endogeneity. It hypothesizes that male and female unemployment will have different impacts on fertility across subgroups of the population. Drawing on the UK Labor Force Survey and the Birth Statistics data from the Office for National Statistics, the results of this study suggest that female unemployment tends to increase births, whereas male unemployment has the opposite effect. More importantly, the reported results indicate the unemployment and fertility relation exhibits strong variation across demographic subgroups. Lastly, a persistent countercyclical fertility pattern is also documented at the county level.