Horizon Scanning The Terrorism Threat

Terrorism is too important a subject for us not to be interested in what causes it. This research project, commissioned by Pool Re, focused on terrorism’s macro-level causes which have been identified as key factors responsible for driving future terrorism. Macro-level factors relate to systemic conditions at the level of society, state, international relations and/or trans-national developments. Emerging macro-level causes which appear to be of growing seriousness and significance include population growth, climate change, migration and immigration patterns. The project aimed (1) to identify and explore macro root causes of terrorism likely to be of particular significance to the terrorism (re)insurance market in the coming decades. The review also considered potential policy mitigations and assessed the potential focus for terrorism reinsurance’s risk management strategy in the future threat landscape; (3) The paper will also aim to explore the confluence of seemingly uninsurable risks (such as climate change and migration) with terrorism.