Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

J. Loisel; A.V. Gallego-Sala; M.J. Amesbury; G. Magnan; G. Anshari; D. Beilman; J.C. Benavides; J. Blewett; P. Camill; D.J. Charman; S. Chawchai; A. Hedgpeth; T. Kleinen; A. Korhola; D. Large; C.A. Mansilla; J. Müller; S. van Bellen; J.B. West; Z. Yu; J. Bubier; M. Garneau; T. Moore; A.B.K. Sannel; S. Page; M. Väliranta; M. Bechtold; V. Brovkin; L.E.S. Cole; J.P. Chanton; T.R. Christensen; M.A. Davies; F. De Vleeschouwer; S.A. Finkelstein; S. Frolking; M. Gałka; L. Gandois; N. Girkin; L.I. Harris; A. Heinemeyer; A.M. Hoyt; M.C. Jones; F. Joos; S. Juutinen; K. Kaiser; T. Lacourse; M. Lamentowicz,; T. Larmola; J. Leifeld; A. Lohila; Alice Milner; K. Minkkinen; P. Moss; B.D.A. Naafs; J. Nichols; J. O'Donnell; R. Payne; M. Philben; S. Piilo; A. Quillet; A.S. Ratnayake; T. Roland; S. Sjögersten; O. Sonnentag; G.T. Swindles; W. Swinnen; J. Talbot; C. Treat; A.C. Valach; J. Wu

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

J. Loisel, A.V. Gallego-Sala, M.J. Amesbury, G. Magnan, G. Anshari, D. Beilman, J.C. Benavides, J. Blewett, P. Camill, D.J. Charman, S. Chawchai, A. Hedgpeth, T. Kleinen, A. Korhola, D. Large, C.A. Mansilla, J. Müller, S. van Bellen, J.B. West, Z. YuJ. Bubier, M. Garneau, T. Moore, A.B.K. Sannel, S. Page, M. Väliranta, M. Bechtold, V. Brovkin, L.E.S. Cole, J.P. Chanton, T.R. Christensen, M.A. Davies, F. De Vleeschouwer, S.A. Finkelstein, S. Frolking, M. Gałka, L. Gandois, N. Girkin, L.I. Harris, A. Heinemeyer, A.M. Hoyt, M.C. Jones, F. Joos, S. Juutinen, K. Kaiser, T. Lacourse, M. Lamentowicz,, T. Larmola, J. Leifeld, A. Lohila, Alice Milner, K. Minkkinen, P. Moss, B.D.A. Naafs, J. Nichols, J. O'Donnell, R. Payne, M. Philben, S. Piilo, A. Quillet, A.S. Ratnayake, T. Roland, S. Sjögersten, O. Sonnentag, G.T. Swindles, W. Swinnen, J. Talbot, C. Treat, A.C. Valach, J. Wu

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Abstract

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Original language	English
Number of pages	12
Journal	Nature Climate Change
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0
Publication status	Published - 7 Dec 2020

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Loisel, J., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Amesbury, M. J., Magnan, G., Anshari, G., Beilman, D., Benavides, J. C., Blewett, J., Camill, P., Charman, D. J., Chawchai, S., Hedgpeth, A., Kleinen, T., Korhola, A., Large, D., Mansilla, C. A., Müller, J., van Bellen, S., West, J. B., ... Wu, J. (2020). Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

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title = "Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink",

abstract = "The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.",

author = "J. Loisel and A.V. Gallego-Sala and M.J. Amesbury and G. Magnan and G. Anshari and D. Beilman and J.C. Benavides and J. Blewett and P. Camill and D.J. Charman and S. Chawchai and A. Hedgpeth and T. Kleinen and A. Korhola and D. Large and C.A. Mansilla and J. M{\"u}ller and {van Bellen}, S. and J.B. West and Z. Yu and J. Bubier and M. Garneau and T. Moore and A.B.K. Sannel and S. Page and M. V{\"a}liranta and M. Bechtold and V. Brovkin and L.E.S. Cole and J.P. Chanton and T.R. Christensen and M.A. Davies and {De Vleeschouwer}, F. and S.A. Finkelstein and S. Frolking and M. Ga{\l}ka and L. Gandois and N. Girkin and L.I. Harris and A. Heinemeyer and A.M. Hoyt and M.C. Jones and F. Joos and S. Juutinen and K. Kaiser and T. Lacourse and M. Lamentowicz, and T. Larmola and J. Leifeld and A. Lohila and Alice Milner and K. Minkkinen and P. Moss and B.D.A. Naafs and J. Nichols and J. O'Donnell and R. Payne and M. Philben and S. Piilo and A. Quillet and A.S. Ratnayake and T. Roland and S. Sj{\"o}gersten and O. Sonnentag and G.T. Swindles and W. Swinnen and J. Talbot and C. Treat and A.C. Valach and J. Wu",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0",

language = "English",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

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Loisel, J, Gallego-Sala, AV, Amesbury, MJ, Magnan, G, Anshari, G, Beilman, D, Benavides, JC, Blewett, J, Camill, P, Charman, DJ, Chawchai, S, Hedgpeth, A, Kleinen, T, Korhola, A, Large, D, Mansilla, CA, Müller, J, van Bellen, S, West, JB, Yu, Z, Bubier, J, Garneau, M, Moore, T, Sannel, ABK, Page, S, Väliranta, M, Bechtold, M, Brovkin, V, Cole, LES, Chanton, JP, Christensen, TR, Davies, MA, De Vleeschouwer, F, Finkelstein, SA, Frolking, S, Gałka, M, Gandois, L, Girkin, N, Harris, LI, Heinemeyer, A, Hoyt, AM, Jones, MC, Joos, F, Juutinen, S, Kaiser, K, Lacourse, T, Lamentowicz, M, Larmola, T, Leifeld, J, Lohila, A, Milner, A, Minkkinen, K, Moss, P, Naafs, BDA, Nichols, J, O'Donnell, J, Payne, R, Philben, M, Piilo, S, Quillet, A, Ratnayake, AS, Roland, T, Sjögersten, S, Sonnentag, O, Swindles, GT, Swinnen, W, Talbot, J, Treat, C, Valach, AC & Wu, J 2020, 'Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink', Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

AU - Loisel, J.

AU - Gallego-Sala, A.V.

AU - Amesbury, M.J.

AU - Magnan, G.

AU - Anshari, G.

AU - Beilman, D.

AU - Benavides, J.C.

AU - Blewett, J.

AU - Camill, P.

AU - Charman, D.J.

AU - Chawchai, S.

AU - Hedgpeth, A.

AU - Kleinen, T.

AU - Korhola, A.

AU - Large, D.

AU - Mansilla, C.A.

AU - Müller, J.

AU - van Bellen, S.

AU - West, J.B.

AU - Yu, Z.

AU - Bubier, J.

AU - Garneau, M.

AU - Moore, T.

AU - Sannel, A.B.K.

AU - Page, S.

AU - Väliranta, M.

AU - Bechtold, M.

AU - Brovkin, V.

AU - Cole, L.E.S.

AU - Chanton, J.P.

AU - Christensen, T.R.

AU - Davies, M.A.

AU - De Vleeschouwer, F.

AU - Finkelstein, S.A.

AU - Frolking, S.

AU - Gałka, M.

AU - Gandois, L.

AU - Girkin, N.

AU - Harris, L.I.

AU - Heinemeyer, A.

AU - Hoyt, A.M.

AU - Jones, M.C.

AU - Joos, F.

AU - Juutinen, S.

AU - Kaiser, K.

AU - Lacourse, T.

AU - Lamentowicz,, M.

AU - Larmola, T.

AU - Leifeld, J.

AU - Lohila, A.

AU - Milner, Alice

AU - Minkkinen, K.

AU - Moss, P.

AU - Naafs, B.D.A.

AU - Nichols, J.

AU - O'Donnell, J.

AU - Payne, R.

AU - Philben, M.

AU - Piilo, S.

AU - Quillet, A.

AU - Ratnayake, A.S.

AU - Roland, T.

AU - Sjögersten, S.

AU - Sonnentag, O.

AU - Swindles, G.T.

AU - Swinnen, W.

AU - Talbot, J.

AU - Treat, C.

AU - Valach, A.C.

AU - Wu, J.

PY - 2020/12/7

Y1 - 2020/12/7

N2 - The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

AB - The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

M3 - Article

SN - 1758-678X

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

ER -