Computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive distributions

Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman

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Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conformal predictive systems inherit the relative computational inefficiency of conformal predictors. In this paper we discuss two computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive systems, which we call split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems. The main advantage of split conformal predictive systems is their guaranteed validity, whereas for cross-conformal predictive systems validity only holds empirically and in the absence of excessive randomization. The main advantage of cross-conformal predictive systems is their greater predictive efficiency.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)292-308
Number of pages17
Early online date2 Dec 2019
Publication statusPublished - 15 Jul 2020


  • conformal prediction
  • cross-conformal prediction
  • inductive conformal prediction
  • predictive distributions
  • split conformal prediction
  • regression

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