Competing or Complementary? Local and Natioonal Competitiveness as Explanatory Factors of Turnout in SMP Systems

Rooted in the rational choice theory, high stake elections are considered to attract more voters than elections where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. In single member plurality systems, local and national competitiveness are both thought to be part of a voter’s consideration when deciding whether or not to turn out to vote. However, we know little about how these two levels of competitiveness interact. This paper aims to shed light on the nature of the relationship – whether competing or complementary – of local and national competitiveness on voter turnout in single member plurality systems. We develop expectations, particularly zooming in on the role of party contention, and verify their validity based the combined British Elections Studies from 1964 to 2019 to which information on the level of electoral saliency at the constituency and national level have been added. We find that the effect of competitiveness on individual level turnout depends on its operationalisation. This is in line with the literature, which reports conflicting evidence about its impact on turnout. When one’s preferred party is in contention at both the local and the national level there is a consistent positive effect on turnout. Out of the two, the local level seems to have slightly more weight.