Bayesian accounts and black swans: Questioning the erotetic theory of delusional thinking

Parrott and Koralus argue that a particular cognitive factor – “impaired endogenous question raising” – offers a parsimonious account of three delusion-related phenomena: 1) the development of the Capgras delusion; 2) evidence that patients with schizophrenia outperform healthy control participants on a conditional reasoning task; and 3) evidence that deluded individuals “jump to conclusions”. In this response I assess these claims, and raise my own questions about the “erotetic” theory of delusional thinking.