Personal profile
Personal profile
Michael Spagat is a Professor of Economics at RoyalHolloway College, University of London. He gained his Ph.D. at HarvardUniversity and earlier held faculty posts at BrownUniversity and the University of Illinois. Spagat’s published papers on armed conflict have been published in Nature, Scientific Reports, the New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of Peace Research, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and PLoS Medicine among other places. His current research addresses universal patterns in modern war, fabrication in survey research, the Dirty War Index civilian casualties in the Iraq conflict and problems in the measurement of war deaths. He blogs on war at https://mikespagat.wordpress.com/.
Research interests
War
Expertise related to UN Sustainable Development Goals
In 2015, UN member states agreed to 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all. This person’s work contributes towards the following SDG(s):
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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being -
SDG 5 Gender Equality -
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth -
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
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The Impact of Drone Warfare on Suicide Bombings in Pakistan
Saeed, L. & Spagat, M., 27 Apr 2026, (Accepted/In press) In: Journal of Peace Research.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
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Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey
Spagat, M., Pedersen, J., Shikaki, K., Robbins, M., Bendavid, E., Hegre, H. & Guha-Sapir, D., 18 Feb 2026, (E-pub ahead of print) In: The Lancet Global Health.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Open Access -
Beyond Significance Testing: Equivalence Testing Reveals Inferential Dead Zones in COW-Based War Trend Analysis
Spagat, M., Fagan, B. & Van Weezel, S., 2025, (Submitted).Research output: Working paper
File19 Downloads (Pure) -
Great Power Warfare and the Decline of War Question
Spagat, M. & Thompson, W., 2025, (Submitted).Research output: Working paper
File53 Downloads (Pure) -
Is the decline of war a delusion? An exchange between researchers following the publication of Azar Gat’s article on the subject
Gartzke, E., Spagat, M., Diehl, P., Sarkees, M., Thompson, W., Oneal, J. R., Mousseau, M., Copeland, D., Owen, J. M., Snyder, J., Ripsman, N. M., Cohen, M., Clauset, A., Mueller, J., Maoz, Z. & Gat, A., 10 Jun 2025, (E-pub ahead of print) In: JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC STUDIES.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
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Social Science Impact Accelerator: Building Strong Links between Royal Holloway and Every Casualty Counts
Spagat, M. (PI) & Riccardi, F. (PI)
1/01/24 → 31/05/24
Project: Other
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The impact on financial markets of conflict events in Afghanistan
Spagat, M. (PI)
1/09/06 → 31/08/07
Project: Research
Activities
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Identifying Genocide by its Fingerprints
Spagat, M. (Speaker)
8 Apr 2026Activity: Talk, presentation or media contribution › Invited talk
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After the Hemoclysm: The Likely Decline of Conventional War After 1950
Spagat, M. (Speaker)
2024Activity: Talk, presentation or media contribution › Invited talk
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Recording, Counting and Estimation of War Deaths
Spagat, M. (Speaker)
22 Feb 2023Activity: Talk, presentation or media contribution › Invited talk
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Deaths in the Iraq War
Spagat, M. (Speaker)
28 Sept 2022Activity: Talk, presentation or media contribution › Invited talk
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Accounting for Death in War: Past, Present and Future
Spagat, M. (Speaker)
8 Feb 2020Activity: Talk, presentation or media contribution › Invited talk
File
Prizes
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The Nils Petter Gleditsch JPR Article of the Year Award
Johnson, N. F. (Recipient), Spagat, M. (Recipient), Gourley, S. (Recipient), Onnela, J. P. (Recipient) & Reinert, G. (Recipient), 2008
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
Datasets
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Karbala - 50 SIGACTs
Dougherty, J. (Creator) & Spagat, M. (Creator), Royal Holloway, University of London, 2019
Dataset